OLD BLOG:This was posted on dailyrecord.com when I switched blog sites. I can send a link to show the date if needed

No Longer a Bradley Effect
Posted 10/26/2008 11:06 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com


In the last few weeks Barack Obama had barely pulled ahead in crucial battleground states such as North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Nevada. Many critics argue that although Barack Obama is ahead in the polls in those swing states, he may still lose them because of the Bradley Effect. This theory states that voters may tell pollsters that they voted for an African American candidate to not seem racist, but then vote on the contrary; which damages the credibility of exit polls. Although the Bradley effect may be relevant in some instances, I believe that in this election, the Bradley Effect will cause minimal damage due to the projected record turnouts of African American voters.

Take a look at North Carolina. According to the Institute for Southern Studies, “African-Americans account for 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they’re just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of the overall 2000 vote.” Since African-Americans tend to lean Democratic, it is highly probably that most of these votes are for Barack Obama.

Culturally, this is the first time an African-American has been a serious contender for the presidency, and that alone has charged the African-American base. The current political environment and the strong public support for change, proves that the Obama campaign is much different then Mayor Tom Bradley’s and will not be greatly traumatized because of the effect.

Avid political gurus should take the polls for what they are, and disregard the Bradley Effect for this election. If Obama is winning in a swing state, it is better that we look at how he pulled ahead and not discredit his success to an outdated theory.