No Longer a Bradley Effect
Posted 10/26/2008 11:06 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
In the last few weeks Barack Obama had barely pulled ahead in crucial battleground states such as North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Nevada. Many critics argue that although Barack Obama is ahead in the polls in those swing states, he may still lose them because of the Bradley Effect. This theory states that voters may tell pollsters that they voted for an African American candidate to not seem racist, but then vote on the contrary; which damages the credibility of exit polls. Although the Bradley effect may be relevant in some instances, I believe that in this election, the Bradley Effect will cause minimal damage due to the projected record turnouts of African American voters.
Take a look at North Carolina. According to the Institute for Southern Studies, “African-Americans account for 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they’re just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of the overall 2000 vote.” Since African-Americans tend to lean Democratic, it is highly probably that most of these votes are for Barack Obama.
Culturally, this is the first time an African-American has been a serious contender for the presidency, and that alone has charged the African-American base. The current political environment and the strong public support for change, proves that the Obama campaign is much different then Mayor Tom Bradley’s and will not be greatly traumatized because of the effect.
Avid political gurus should take the polls for what they are, and disregard the Bradley Effect for this election. If Obama is winning in a swing state, it is better that we look at how he pulled ahead and not discredit his success to an outdated theory.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
OLD BLOG:This was posted on dailyrecord.com when I switched blog sites. I can send a link to show the date if needed
Stay Home on Election Day
Posted 10/17/2008 9:55 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
The undecided voter has been put on a pedestal by both John McCain and Barack Obama. Although critical to both campaigns, it may be better for America that these independents stay home on Election Day.
By now, both John McCain and Barack Obama have been campaigning for about two years; and have addressed everything from health care, national security, and to whom’s economic strategy will better assist "Joe the Plumber." It is incomprehensible that some Americans are waiting for a magic phrase that will sweep them off their feet and land them into candidate’s arms.
It is for this reason that the founders at the constitutional convention created the Electoral College.
Steven J Wayne, a political scientist, said, "They (the founders) wanted an electoral system that choose the most qualified person but not necessarily the most popular."
Because of these undecided voters who cannot make up their minds on policy, candidates must move away from rhetoric and rely on catch phrases and zingers. They must attend events such as the Alfred E. Smith memorial foundation dinner and Saturday Night Live to gain votes by the power of laughter.
Hopefully these voters stay home on election day, due to a headache, much like the one us committed voters have seeing candidates dance like a marionette dolls in the hands of undecided voters.
Posted 10/17/2008 9:55 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
The undecided voter has been put on a pedestal by both John McCain and Barack Obama. Although critical to both campaigns, it may be better for America that these independents stay home on Election Day.
By now, both John McCain and Barack Obama have been campaigning for about two years; and have addressed everything from health care, national security, and to whom’s economic strategy will better assist "Joe the Plumber." It is incomprehensible that some Americans are waiting for a magic phrase that will sweep them off their feet and land them into candidate’s arms.
It is for this reason that the founders at the constitutional convention created the Electoral College.
Steven J Wayne, a political scientist, said, "They (the founders) wanted an electoral system that choose the most qualified person but not necessarily the most popular."
Because of these undecided voters who cannot make up their minds on policy, candidates must move away from rhetoric and rely on catch phrases and zingers. They must attend events such as the Alfred E. Smith memorial foundation dinner and Saturday Night Live to gain votes by the power of laughter.
Hopefully these voters stay home on election day, due to a headache, much like the one us committed voters have seeing candidates dance like a marionette dolls in the hands of undecided voters.
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