No Longer a Bradley Effect
Posted 10/26/2008 11:06 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
In the last few weeks Barack Obama had barely pulled ahead in crucial battleground states such as North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Nevada. Many critics argue that although Barack Obama is ahead in the polls in those swing states, he may still lose them because of the Bradley Effect. This theory states that voters may tell pollsters that they voted for an African American candidate to not seem racist, but then vote on the contrary; which damages the credibility of exit polls. Although the Bradley effect may be relevant in some instances, I believe that in this election, the Bradley Effect will cause minimal damage due to the projected record turnouts of African American voters.
Take a look at North Carolina. According to the Institute for Southern Studies, “African-Americans account for 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they’re just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of the overall 2000 vote.” Since African-Americans tend to lean Democratic, it is highly probably that most of these votes are for Barack Obama.
Culturally, this is the first time an African-American has been a serious contender for the presidency, and that alone has charged the African-American base. The current political environment and the strong public support for change, proves that the Obama campaign is much different then Mayor Tom Bradley’s and will not be greatly traumatized because of the effect.
Avid political gurus should take the polls for what they are, and disregard the Bradley Effect for this election. If Obama is winning in a swing state, it is better that we look at how he pulled ahead and not discredit his success to an outdated theory.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
OLD BLOG:This was posted on dailyrecord.com when I switched blog sites. I can send a link to show the date if needed
Stay Home on Election Day
Posted 10/17/2008 9:55 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
The undecided voter has been put on a pedestal by both John McCain and Barack Obama. Although critical to both campaigns, it may be better for America that these independents stay home on Election Day.
By now, both John McCain and Barack Obama have been campaigning for about two years; and have addressed everything from health care, national security, and to whom’s economic strategy will better assist "Joe the Plumber." It is incomprehensible that some Americans are waiting for a magic phrase that will sweep them off their feet and land them into candidate’s arms.
It is for this reason that the founders at the constitutional convention created the Electoral College.
Steven J Wayne, a political scientist, said, "They (the founders) wanted an electoral system that choose the most qualified person but not necessarily the most popular."
Because of these undecided voters who cannot make up their minds on policy, candidates must move away from rhetoric and rely on catch phrases and zingers. They must attend events such as the Alfred E. Smith memorial foundation dinner and Saturday Night Live to gain votes by the power of laughter.
Hopefully these voters stay home on election day, due to a headache, much like the one us committed voters have seeing candidates dance like a marionette dolls in the hands of undecided voters.
Posted 10/17/2008 9:55 PM EDT on dailyrecord.com
The undecided voter has been put on a pedestal by both John McCain and Barack Obama. Although critical to both campaigns, it may be better for America that these independents stay home on Election Day.
By now, both John McCain and Barack Obama have been campaigning for about two years; and have addressed everything from health care, national security, and to whom’s economic strategy will better assist "Joe the Plumber." It is incomprehensible that some Americans are waiting for a magic phrase that will sweep them off their feet and land them into candidate’s arms.
It is for this reason that the founders at the constitutional convention created the Electoral College.
Steven J Wayne, a political scientist, said, "They (the founders) wanted an electoral system that choose the most qualified person but not necessarily the most popular."
Because of these undecided voters who cannot make up their minds on policy, candidates must move away from rhetoric and rely on catch phrases and zingers. They must attend events such as the Alfred E. Smith memorial foundation dinner and Saturday Night Live to gain votes by the power of laughter.
Hopefully these voters stay home on election day, due to a headache, much like the one us committed voters have seeing candidates dance like a marionette dolls in the hands of undecided voters.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Presidential Turkey
After stuffing my face with turkey, shoveling stuffing down my throat, and washing the meal down with cheap wine, I thought about the reasons for which I was thankful. It was not until family members started to talk drunken politics that I realized that Barack Obama is probably the most thankful of all Americans.
For one, he was able to overcome bigotry and ignorance. Many pundits, myself included, believed that the Bradley effect was going to lead to his demise in states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. This was not the case as Obama was able to connect with voters of those states with a strong economic message that was more important to voters then the color of his skin.
Obama was also able to disassociate himself from his radical friends in the same manner as one handles a bad dinner guest at Thanksgiving dinner. First, when the agitator arrives, nobody really notices their presence. Reverend Wright, for example, had been a radical pastor for years before being brought into the public eye. Then, when the dinner guest starts to cause trouble, the one who brought the dinner guest is backed into a cage of verbal assault and questioning. Fox News’ Sean Hannity was one of the first of these accusers to question Obama’s associations and ran a series of segments on his show titled “The Real Barack Obama.” After immerse scrutiny, Obama finally took responsibility for his association, just as one does with their misbehaved guest, and then distances themselves from them for the rest of the party. This seemed to work with the American people as they feasted on Obama’s eloquence and articulation.
When thinking about his campaign, Barack Obama should be most thankful. He was able to overcome years of bigotry and arrogance in states never thought possible. He combated major news networks, and outwitted voters by convincing them to accept his radical associations. He ran an eloquent campaign on the economy, and overwhelmingly won the presidency of the United States.
For one, he was able to overcome bigotry and ignorance. Many pundits, myself included, believed that the Bradley effect was going to lead to his demise in states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. This was not the case as Obama was able to connect with voters of those states with a strong economic message that was more important to voters then the color of his skin.
Obama was also able to disassociate himself from his radical friends in the same manner as one handles a bad dinner guest at Thanksgiving dinner. First, when the agitator arrives, nobody really notices their presence. Reverend Wright, for example, had been a radical pastor for years before being brought into the public eye. Then, when the dinner guest starts to cause trouble, the one who brought the dinner guest is backed into a cage of verbal assault and questioning. Fox News’ Sean Hannity was one of the first of these accusers to question Obama’s associations and ran a series of segments on his show titled “The Real Barack Obama.” After immerse scrutiny, Obama finally took responsibility for his association, just as one does with their misbehaved guest, and then distances themselves from them for the rest of the party. This seemed to work with the American people as they feasted on Obama’s eloquence and articulation.
When thinking about his campaign, Barack Obama should be most thankful. He was able to overcome years of bigotry and arrogance in states never thought possible. He combated major news networks, and outwitted voters by convincing them to accept his radical associations. He ran an eloquent campaign on the economy, and overwhelmingly won the presidency of the United States.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Writing in Saudi Arabia
Writing in Saudi Arabia
While blitzing through BusinessWeek magazine this weekend, I came across an article that could keep me out of jail, as long as I do not blog in Saudi Arabia. According to the article Internet Censorship: a Community Effort, Peter Burrows writes that in Saudi Arabia “one local blogger, Fouad al Farhan, was jailed earlier this year for advocating political reforms.”
This does not seem much different from what I do writing political editorials and blogs on a weekly basis. It’s a bit odd to me that a country that employs only 25 people in their version of the FCC can also be one of the most restrictive in the world. As it turns out, citizens in Saudi Arabia file requests to bring justice to internet wrong doers. It is injustices like those that make me grateful to live in America
These actions of the Saudi Arabian government led me to think about my future writing career. How would my life be altered if I lived in a country with such high sanctions for free speech? First, I wouldn’t be perusing a career in journalism. Everything I have been studying the past four years in the communications field would be futile. I would be better off and probably more successful, working at the garbage dumps with my father as I have been the last two summers.
By not perusing a college education, I would not have been on a collegiate wrestling team. By not being on the wrestling team, I would not be acquainted with the some of the people that I consider my best friends. I also would never have the chance to look back and share the memories of my wrestling days with my children.
It just amazes me how many ways my life would be different by the limiting of free speech, and it took an article from BusinessWeek to put this into perspective. Never have I thought, until now, the ramifications of living in another country with these sanctions, and I have never been prouder of the first amendment of the United States Constitution.
While blitzing through BusinessWeek magazine this weekend, I came across an article that could keep me out of jail, as long as I do not blog in Saudi Arabia. According to the article Internet Censorship: a Community Effort, Peter Burrows writes that in Saudi Arabia “one local blogger, Fouad al Farhan, was jailed earlier this year for advocating political reforms.”
This does not seem much different from what I do writing political editorials and blogs on a weekly basis. It’s a bit odd to me that a country that employs only 25 people in their version of the FCC can also be one of the most restrictive in the world. As it turns out, citizens in Saudi Arabia file requests to bring justice to internet wrong doers. It is injustices like those that make me grateful to live in America
These actions of the Saudi Arabian government led me to think about my future writing career. How would my life be altered if I lived in a country with such high sanctions for free speech? First, I wouldn’t be perusing a career in journalism. Everything I have been studying the past four years in the communications field would be futile. I would be better off and probably more successful, working at the garbage dumps with my father as I have been the last two summers.
By not perusing a college education, I would not have been on a collegiate wrestling team. By not being on the wrestling team, I would not be acquainted with the some of the people that I consider my best friends. I also would never have the chance to look back and share the memories of my wrestling days with my children.
It just amazes me how many ways my life would be different by the limiting of free speech, and it took an article from BusinessWeek to put this into perspective. Never have I thought, until now, the ramifications of living in another country with these sanctions, and I have never been prouder of the first amendment of the United States Constitution.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Good News for Upset Republicans
After losing the presidency, senatorial seats and a multitude of House seats, Republicans have much to be upset about. But I feel with all this loss there is some good.
First, losing will make the Republican Party stronger. Over the last eight years the Republican Party has become fractured. More new voters are registering Democratic, and large amounts of Republicans have left the party. Having Democrats run the federal government, will give Americans a chance to see the flaws of their party. This is because after their honeymoon period, news networks will start to pick at every flaw of the Democratic majority. If Democrats are perceived as running the government poorly, Americans will ban together under the cause of change to once again put Republicans in office.
Second, Democrats will not be too liberal. At least if they still want to be in office after midterm elections. The reason for this is because America is still a center right country. Leaning too far to the left will put Americans in an uncomfortable and unfavorable position. If Democratic members of congress want to stay in office they have to reach across the aisle.
Lastly, Republicans will no longer be on defense. It is going to be nice not to be burdened with defending a president that’s been failing in the minds of American citizens. This gives Republicans a chance to be on the aggressors.
So for all Republicans out there who are disappointed for losing the presidency, and almost every seat in the senate short of being filibuster proof, there is still things to feel good about. Keep your head high because it is your turn to be on the aggressors. Midterm elections are not that far away, and this just might be the perfect opportunity to get the Republican Party back on track.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Scare Tactics: For Good Reason
In the final stride of the 2008 election, the Republican Party has one more weapon up their sleeves, scare tactics. Scare tactics that portray the doomed fate of democracy by having a Democratic supermajority. This tactic tends to be strong and for good reason.
First, if democrats win control of the senate, they will gain the ability to discount filibusters. Bills will be passed through the house and senate without having to comprise with the Republican minority. This takes away an important check installed into our government by the founding fathers. With one party controlling the government, only a fraction of Americans will be represented by the partisanship of the Democratic Party.
It has already been proven that the Democratic controlled House of Representatives’ inability to pass legislation is due to their partisanship. Their dismal approval rating of 17% on good day represents two years of playing to their own party’s tune, and not to the rest of the country.
This scare tactic employed by the Republican Party will prove useful. They can show the dangers Democrats controlling government by pointing to particular bills. The financial bailout package, for example, would not have represented the entire country if there were a Democratic supermajority. Democrats would not have had to negotiate with house Republicans to get the bill enacted, and would have passed the first time around. This would have led to inequality in the bill, pushing the left winged liberal agenda. The Republicans can use examples such as that to show how insane it would be to give one party total power to manipulate law.
The Republican scare tactics will prove useful in the last few days of the campaign. Although a dirty trick, it may be the only chance McCain has to narrow the margin of undecided voters. As long as the scare tactics remain true to fact, McCain can still hold his head high for running a fair campaign for the presidency.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Palin-isms: Helping Not Hurting
Gov. Sarah Palin's efforts to weave frayed Republicans together have successfully failed. The only scheduled vice presidential debate is tonight, and Palin's continuous screw-up's (Palin-isms) have actually benefited her.
In the last week, Palin butchered an interview with Katie Couric. She stumbled incoherently when talking about the economic crises. Afterward, she continued to defend Alaska's proximity to Russia as foreign policy expertise. Her exact words were, "as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United Sates of America, where--where do they go? It's Alaska."
What was perceived as a terrible response will actually propel her in tonight's debate. For the last three weeks, Saturday Night Live's Tina Fey, has been a goldmine with her political satires of Palin. Fey's impersonations have been scrutinized by Republicans claiming the skits were written by eastern elites. Although probably not intended, the impersonations have dropped America's expectations of the vice presidential candidate, thus making a meager performance at tonight debate acceptable.
It's not just the "eastern elites" that have scrutinized Palin, but members of her own party. Most famously, Kathleen Parker, a right-wing columnist, who has called for Palin's resignation saying the candidate, should "bow out" as the only way to save McCain from loosing the election.
The bar for Palin has been set so low that only a monumental blunder could take away her inevitable success. This gives her an additional advantage other than being a woman. Joe Biden has to keep his emotions under control so he is not portrayed as a sexist, and now he has to outperform Palin by extraordinary levels to be victorious.
Surely the McCain camp will be drilling information into the Alaskan governor's head in preparation for tonight's debate. In order to compete with Biden, year's worth of economics, international affairs and domestic policies have to be learned. All the campaign can hope for is a night of few mistakes.
In the last week, Palin butchered an interview with Katie Couric. She stumbled incoherently when talking about the economic crises. Afterward, she continued to defend Alaska's proximity to Russia as foreign policy expertise. Her exact words were, "as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United Sates of America, where--where do they go? It's Alaska."
What was perceived as a terrible response will actually propel her in tonight's debate. For the last three weeks, Saturday Night Live's Tina Fey, has been a goldmine with her political satires of Palin. Fey's impersonations have been scrutinized by Republicans claiming the skits were written by eastern elites. Although probably not intended, the impersonations have dropped America's expectations of the vice presidential candidate, thus making a meager performance at tonight debate acceptable.
It's not just the "eastern elites" that have scrutinized Palin, but members of her own party. Most famously, Kathleen Parker, a right-wing columnist, who has called for Palin's resignation saying the candidate, should "bow out" as the only way to save McCain from loosing the election.
The bar for Palin has been set so low that only a monumental blunder could take away her inevitable success. This gives her an additional advantage other than being a woman. Joe Biden has to keep his emotions under control so he is not portrayed as a sexist, and now he has to outperform Palin by extraordinary levels to be victorious.
Surely the McCain camp will be drilling information into the Alaskan governor's head in preparation for tonight's debate. In order to compete with Biden, year's worth of economics, international affairs and domestic policies have to be learned. All the campaign can hope for is a night of few mistakes.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
The Obama Connection
Barack Obama has connected with voters. He has made college students politically active, wooed powerful democratic leaders, and even obtained some Republican supporters. In light of this phenomenon, the presidential race is still as close as ever.
According to the Rasmussen tracking poll, Barack Obama is leading John McCain 48 to 47 percent. When looking at the way the Obama campaign has handled the election, it seems that he still has not appealed to white working-class Americans.
Although race may be an issue for white working-class voters, Obama still has not made a significant effort to bringing those voters to his side of the ticket. Recently, on September 16th, Obama had a fundraiser in which he sold tickets to anyone willing to see the great Barbra Streisand. The only catch was that tickets sold for $2,500. The event raised the democratic candidate 9 million dollars in one concert. Of course, the only people able to afford the tickets were the upper class elites and big businesses. Not in attendance -- the white working-class voters.
If Barack Obama wants to connect with the white working-class voters, he has to stop portraying himself as an elitist. Having a fundraiser that only that upper class can afford puts Obama just one step further away from making that connection. For a candidate that claims he can relate to the working class, he is gradually moving further away from obtaining that relationship.
According to the Rasmussen tracking poll, Barack Obama is leading John McCain 48 to 47 percent. When looking at the way the Obama campaign has handled the election, it seems that he still has not appealed to white working-class Americans.
Although race may be an issue for white working-class voters, Obama still has not made a significant effort to bringing those voters to his side of the ticket. Recently, on September 16th, Obama had a fundraiser in which he sold tickets to anyone willing to see the great Barbra Streisand. The only catch was that tickets sold for $2,500. The event raised the democratic candidate 9 million dollars in one concert. Of course, the only people able to afford the tickets were the upper class elites and big businesses. Not in attendance -- the white working-class voters.
If Barack Obama wants to connect with the white working-class voters, he has to stop portraying himself as an elitist. Having a fundraiser that only that upper class can afford puts Obama just one step further away from making that connection. For a candidate that claims he can relate to the working class, he is gradually moving further away from obtaining that relationship.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Palin Reunites Republican Party
The Republican Party is hanging on by a thread. Led by a president with a 33 percent approval rating; the war on terror is just one of many issues tearing apart the Republican Party. Cabinet members have come and gone out of the Bush administration like the seasons, and long-time committed Republicans are losing their political interest or worst, switching parties. The GOP had to throw a “Hail Mary” pass at the Republican National Convention, and it was caught by vice presidential candidate, Alaskan Governor, Sarah Palin.
This small town mayor turned governor turns out to be exactly what the Republican Party needs. She brings energy and tenacity to the presidential race that John McCain simply does not have.
She is also not afraid to bring attention to Barrack Obama’s inexperience and selfishness. She attacked him for writing two memoirs but not a single major piece of litigation. She also said that “he (Obama) is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting, and never use the word 'victory' except when he's talking about his own campaign."
According to US Weekly, Palin had 37 million viewers glued to their television screens during her acceptence speech. This almost matched the amount of people who watched Barack Obama deliver his speech the previous week.
More republicans are now coming back to join the Republican effort, and Palin seems to be the driving force. McCain contributions have also been at a record high since the announcement of Palin’s candidacy. More money is sure to pile in as the country gets to know the small town hockey mom turned vice presidential candidate.
This small town mayor turned governor turns out to be exactly what the Republican Party needs. She brings energy and tenacity to the presidential race that John McCain simply does not have.
She is also not afraid to bring attention to Barrack Obama’s inexperience and selfishness. She attacked him for writing two memoirs but not a single major piece of litigation. She also said that “he (Obama) is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting, and never use the word 'victory' except when he's talking about his own campaign."
According to US Weekly, Palin had 37 million viewers glued to their television screens during her acceptence speech. This almost matched the amount of people who watched Barack Obama deliver his speech the previous week.
More republicans are now coming back to join the Republican effort, and Palin seems to be the driving force. McCain contributions have also been at a record high since the announcement of Palin’s candidacy. More money is sure to pile in as the country gets to know the small town hockey mom turned vice presidential candidate.
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